The H-1B Lottery Has Changed. Here’s What the First Data Shows

The H-1B visa process is entering a new phase.

Two major changes took effect over the past year: a $100,000 fee on certain new H-1B petitions and the replacement of the long-standing random lottery with a wage-weighted selection system. Together, they are changing how employers access global talent.

Today, Boundless is publishing its 2026 H-1B Work Visa Trends Report, combining national data from U.S. Citizenship and Immigration Services (USCIS) with outcomes from our own client base in the first cap season under the new rules.

The early results point in a clear direction: selection outcomes are no longer evenly distributed across roles.

Read the full 2026 H-1B Work Visa Trends Report.

Higher-wage roles are being selected at much higher rates

The most consistent pattern in the data is the relationship between wage level and selection.

In Boundless client data from the FY2027 cap season (March 2026 registrations):

• Level III roles were selected at 68%
• Level IV roles at 64%
• Level I roles at 40%

This gap of 24 to 28 percentage points reflects how the new system is designed to operate, assigning more selection weight to higher-wage positions.

Selection rates are trending higher overall

Boundless clients saw an overall selection rate of 48% in the FY2026 cap season (March 2025 registrations, under the prior random lottery) — the highest level in the five-year period we track.

That increase appears to reflect both reduced duplicate registrations and changes in how employers approached filings leading into the new system.

The full picture is more complex

Wage level is the clearest driver, but it is not the only one. The data also shows meaningful differences across education levels, work authorization types, and occupation groups. Some candidates benefit from multiple structural advantages, while others face lower selection odds under the new framework.

Those patterns are less visible at a glance, but they become clearer when you look across the full dataset.

What this means for employers

The H-1B process is becoming more dependent on decisions made earlier in the hiring cycle.

Employers should consider:

• Wage level classification: How a role is defined now has a direct impact on selection odds
• Timing: Earlier planning allows for more flexibility in structuring roles and offers
• Talent pipelines: Candidates already in the U.S. may offer cost and timing advantages under current policy

The process remains competitive, but it is no longer purely random.

Read the full report

The 2026 H-1B Work Visa Trends Report goes deeper into how selection outcomes vary by wage level, education, work authorization, and occupation, and what those patterns mean for hiring decisions in the next cap season.

Read the full report here.